Analysis of Philippines Chairmanship in 2026
The closing ceremony of the 47th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits and the formal transfer of the ASEAN chairmanship to the Philippines. ASEAN
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The Philippines is the chairman of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) this year, under the theme “Navigating Our Future, Together”.
There are a plethora of issues that it has to navigate, on the 50th anniversary of the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, particularly safeguarding ASEAN’s central role amid an increasingly competitive and contested strategic landscape, maritime cooperation, Myanmar’s reform efforts, the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict and artificial intelligence (AI).
ASEAN’s 11th member, Timor Leste, joined the Asean bloc last year. The Philippines will help to assimilate them by providing guidance.
Both nations are largely Catholic, and this shared religious and cultural heritage may facilitate closer mutual understanding and ties between them.
After maintaining observer status since 1986, Papua New Guinea is seeking membership in the bloc to strengthen economic integration and regional ties. At the 46th ASEAN Summit, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto endorsed its bid, signalling regional support.
There are ongoing discussions about elevating Papua New Guinea’s standing to Special Observer status within ASEAN.
ASEAN Centrality is of paramount importance during turbulent times with rising protectionism and conflicts regionally and internationally.
At the Special ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in December 2025, Indonesian Foreign Affairs Minister Sugiono highlighted the significance of ASEAN in maintaining regional stability and unity. This helps ensure ASEAN is not reduced to a pawn amid strategic rivalries and competition among major powers.
Given the number of conflicts regionally and internationally, Minister Sugiono also reinforced that peace in the region is precious and must be actively safeguarded. This can be realised by resolving disagreements through dialogue and collaboration.
As Asean Chair, the Philippines is expected to assume a more proactive role in sustaining dialogue among Asean nations, minimising the risk of miscalculation, and helping to prevent tensions from escalating. This helps to uphold unity, with an emphasis on consensus-based decision-making.
The Philippines is one of several countries including Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam, with competing claims over the South China Sea. On 12 December 2025, Chinese Coast Guard vessels clashed with Filipino fishing vessels near Sabina Shoal, 75 nautical miles away from the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone.
Indonesia has also expressed its readiness to assist the Philippines in finalising the South China Sea Code of Conduct, consistent with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Ultimately, the key test is making sure that the Code of Conduct becomes a binding and enforceable framework that all parties abide by.
Dr Aries Arugay, visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute holds the view that the Philippines should avoid pressing too hard on the South China Sea issue which may be self-advancing, and instead prioritise advancing Asean’s broader joint objectives.
The Philippines special envoy to Myanmar held talks with Min Aung Hlaing and other junta leaders in Naypyidaw on 6 January.
To avoid conveying the wrong message to the junta and inadvertently legitimising their rule, The Philippines special envoy to Myanmar stated that ASEAN will not recognise the three-phase elections conducted in Myanmar.
Asean continues to stand firmly by its ASEAN Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar, maintaining that its full and effective implementation is of paramount importance in illustrating that it wants to work well with the Asean bloc.
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul won the Thailand general election in February 2026 by a comfortable margin and will be looking to form a coalition with Pheu Thai party.
Political analysts believe that the Cambodia-Thailand conflict sparked nationalistic sentiments which were instrumental in Bhumjaithai Party’s election victory.
The dispute originated from boundary lines marked on colonial-era maps used by France when they colonised Cambodia. There have been competing territorial claims between Cambodia and Thailand ever since.
Over half a million people were displaced from their homes due to the Cambodia-Thailand conflict.
Asean Chairman 2025 Malaysia and the US were pivotal in brokering a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand.
In 2026, that responsibility will be passed on to the Philippines as the US credibility may have been undermined by their capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Most crucially, they will help to ensure that relations between Cambodia and Thailand are stabilised, as both nations are part of the Asean bloc.
It is estimated that digital trade may reach approximately $2 trillion by the year 2030.
The Asean bloc is expected to sign the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) this year. This would mark the world’s first regional digital economy pact, establishing a $2 trillion integrated digital market spanning Southeast Asia.
There has been exponential growth of artificial intelligence over the past year, with Southeast Asian nations seeking to leverage it to enhance economic competitiveness, strengthen digital infrastructure, improve public service delivery and attract high-value technology investments.
The Philippines plans to build on recent regional momentum in AI policy, following Malaysia’s efforts during its 2025 ASEAN chairmanship, where it positioned itself as a regional AI leader during the ASEAN AI Malaysia Summit. Philippine officials signalled since 2024 that AI would be a priority, a commitment reaffirmed by President Bongbong Marcos at the 46th ASEAN Leaders’ Summit.
At a ceremony in November 2025 marking the inauguration of Philippines’s 2026 chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr called for a more cohesive and forward-looking Asean, harnessing innovation to promote peace and drive prosperity.
Ong Bo Yang is a former senior associate in a Japanese bank and has written for more than 10 Southeast Asian newspapers including CNA, Malaysiakini, and VNExpress. The views and opinions expressed are his own.
-Phnom Penh Post-
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