COP30 and the Future of Southeast Asia’s Tropical Forests

Photo: Venkatachalam Anbumozhi is a senior research fellow for innovation at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). Supplied

-Opinion-

COP30 in Belém – an urban centre at the heart of the Amazon – marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement and the third global “recommitment” moment, when countries were expected to strengthen their pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate climate action. Yet this milestone arrives at a difficult moment for climate diplomacy. The US has stepped back from its international commitments, Europe is still recovering from the energy and economic shocks triggered by Russia’s gas supply cuts and many developing countries of the Global South remain more focused on economic competitiveness and inclusive growth than on rapid green transitions.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has positioned COP30 as the “forest COP”. By bringing the negotiations to Belém, he signals a clear intention: to move climate decision-making closer to the world’s most biodiverse rainforest. Brazil has spotlighted its recent progress in reducing deforestation in the Amazon and the Cerrado. However, this progress remains fragile – and conditions in many other forested countries across the Global South are even more precarious.

Amidst the political tension surrounding emission cuts and Paris Agreement targets, a major financial proposal has captured global attention: the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). Envisioned as a multilateral trust fund managed by the World Bank, the TFFF seeks to mobilise $125 billion from public and private investors to reward countries for keeping their forests standing ‘forever.’ This concept is especially attractive to Southeast Asia – a region with roughly 191.9 million hectares of forest, including some of the world’s oldest rainforests. The promise is alluring: protect forests, earn revenue and help slow climate change.

But the TFFF raises a fundamental and unresolved question: how will this mechanism affect forest-dependent communities and truly limit carbon emissions?

Tropical forests store vast amounts of carbon, making their protection essential. ERIA research shows that safeguarding peatlands and mangroves in Brunei alone could reduce national land-use emissions by up to 60% – an enormous contribution, but one that hinges on keeping global temperatures below 2°C. Crucially, these gains would be overshadowed if the fossil fuels lying beneath many tropical forests were extracted and burned.

Of the 74 countries with TFFF-eligible forests, 68 also have fossil fuel reserves beneath them. These reserves represent an estimated 317 billion tonnes of potential emissions from recoverable deposits – and more than 4.6 trillion tonnes if all known deposits were exploited. The bulk of this risk lies in just three countries: China, India and Indonesia. Forest protection, therefore, must come with appropriate guidelines on the use of fossils below beneath the protected forests. To be equitable, a parallel scheme must also cover non-TFFF countries, particularly those with boreal forests that sit atop major hydrocarbon deposits, which may conflict with energy security objectives

For the TFFF to work, countries must make enforceable commitments, investors must accept lower-risk but longer-term returns, and Indigenous and local communities must hold secure forest tenure rights that cannot be overridden by state claims to subsoil resources. Without such safeguards, “forever forests” risk becoming yet another limited climate solution.

Southeast Asia’s forests are not untouched wilderness but social–ecological systems shaped over millennia of Indigenous and local stewardship. The forests of Borneo and the Mekong Basin, for example, are co-created landscapes sustained by practices such as controlled burning, seed dispersal, forest gardening and rotational agriculture. Indigenous communities have long managed these ecosystems more sustainably than many state-led conservation programmes.

Yet under Brazil’s current TFFF proposal, countries in Southeast Asia would receive just $4 per hectare of protected forest – of which only 80 cents would reach local communities – while facing fines of $400 per hectare for any deforestation. Such a framework could disrupt long-standing, sustainable land-use practices such as small-scale clearing, hunting and gathering – practices integral to community livelihoods and forest health.

If the TFFF advances toward agreement at COP30, it must be redesigned to grant Indigenous communities meaningful self-governance. Investors should pay a premium for forests located above fossil reserves, and state–community rights must be rebalanced so that no-go zones are respected in practice, not just in policy. Only then can “forever forests” become true territories of life.

At COP30, forest-rich Southeast Asian countries should also push for a more comprehensive vision of climate adaptation – one that includes climate-smart infrastructure and care systems. Investments in accessible, high-quality services and decent jobs can build resilience amongst forest communities, enabling them to prepare for and recover from climate-related shocks. While many Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) include health and education, they often overlook early childhood education, long-term care systems and broader community-support infrastructure.

If history is a guide, ASEAN Member States may again exert collective influence to demand loss-and-damage compensation from developed countries – particularly the fulfilment of long-standing climate finance commitments to pursue multiple pathways of affordable decarbonisation. Emerging forest carbon markets could also play an important role in Southeast Asia by creating new price signals that support inclusive, low-carbon transitions. With proper integration, carbon markets could provide high-integrity opportunities for financial institutions and contribute meaningfully to global decarbonisation.

If ASEAN, in partnership with Brazil, negotiates as a bloc in the formal COP tracks, COP30 could mark another important step toward a more inclusive and multipolar climate multilateralism – one in which tropical forest countries shape the rules, not just follow them.

Venkatachalam Anbumozhi is a senior research fellow for innovation at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). The views and opinions expressed are his own.

-The Phnom Penh Post-