Can small fish Cambodia learn to swim faster in a multi-dimensional world?
As the global order becomes less hierarchical and more networked, ‘fast fish’ nations that can move quickly, build relationships across multiple blocs and adapt faster than their competitors will do better than others. Khmer Times
#Opinion
For more than three decades, the global economy revolved around a relatively clear assumption: the United States would remain the central architect of the international system. Washington largely shaped the rules, safeguarded major trade routes, underpinned financial stability and served as the ultimate guarantor of the global order. That assumption is now being challenged.
What makes the current transition particularly unusual is that no obvious successor is waiting to take America’s place. Rather than simply being overtaken by another power, the United States is gradually stepping back from elements of the system it once helped create. Through tariff disputes, sanctions, economic pressure and increasingly unpredictable policy shifts, Washington is encouraging many countries to diversify their trade relationships, financial networks, technological partnerships and even security arrangements.
In many ways, America is both reshaping and weakening the very framework it built. Meanwhile, China continues its rise, but not according to the traditional model followed by previous great powers. Beijing has become the leading trading partner for a large portion of the world and continues to invest heavily in infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, scientific research, and emerging technologies. Yet China appears far less interested in assuming the full responsibilities that historically accompanied global hegemony. It has shown little desire to maintain a worldwide military footprint or absorb the immense costs associated with policing the international system.
This creates a situation without precedent: a dominant power gradually losing its central position and a rising power that has limited interest in replacing it. The result is a global landscape unlike anything seen before. Rather than being organised around a single hierarchy, the global system is becoming increasingly multidimensional. The traditional pyramid of power is giving way to a more complex network of overlapping centres of influence, where competition and cooperation often occur simultaneously.
In this environment, emerging and middle powers are finding greater strategic flexibility than at any time in recent history. More countries are rejecting the idea that they must align exclusively with one camp or another. Instead, they are pursuing pragmatic strategies that allow them to benefit from multiple economic, political and technological ecosystems at the same time. The numbers reflect this broader shift. By 2025, the expanded BRICS grouping is expected to account for roughly 39% of global GDP on a purchasing power parity basis, surpassing the combined share of the G7. Annual trade among BRICS members has already exceeded $1 trillion, while alternative payment systems, logistics corridors and financial frameworks continue to grow.
Globalisation itself has not disappeared. What has changed is its structure. Instead of a single, highly integrated system, the world is moving towards a more fragmented model consisting of interconnected but increasingly distinct economic and geopolitical networks. For this reason, the defining feature of the coming decade is unlikely to be a simple rivalry between two superpowers.
More likely, it will be shaped by competition among multiple regional and global clusters seeking technological leadership, economic resilience, strategic autonomy and security.
The expectation is that this period of fragmentation will eventually lead to a new global “grand bargain” sometime between 2030 and 2035. Like previous international settlements that emerged after major conflicts or periods of geopolitical upheaval, it would establish a framework that allows rival blocs to coexist and compete within agreed boundaries. However, there is likely to be one significant difference.
For the first time in modern history, governments may not be the only actors negotiating the future architecture of the global system. Major technology firms, artificial intelligence leaders, digital infrastructure providers and global fintech platforms could become participants alongside nation-states in shaping the rules of the next era.
The age of hegemonic dominance is gradually drawing to a close. The age of interconnected networks is only beginning.
Much has been written about the emerging post-American world and the rise of a more fragmented international order. Most discussions focus on the competition between major powers, the tensions between Washington and Beijing or the shifting balance between the G7 and BRICS. Yet perhaps the more interesting question is not what happens to the giants. It is what happens to the smaller nations.
For decades, countries like Cambodia were often viewed through the lens of geopolitics rather than opportunity. Conventional wisdom suggested that small countries had little choice but to align themselves with larger powers and adapt to rules written elsewhere. In a world dominated by a single superpower, influence tended to flow from the top down.
Today, that reality is changing. As the global system becomes less hierarchical and more networked, agility is beginning to matter as much as size. The future may no longer belong exclusively to the biggest economies or the strongest militaries. Instead, it may reward countries that can move quickly, build relationships across multiple blocs and adapt faster than their competitors. In many ways, the old saying that “big fish eat small fish” is gradually being replaced by a new reality: “fast fish outswim slow fish.”
For Cambodia, this shift could represent one of the greatest strategic opportunities since joining ASEAN. The country sits at the intersection of several powerful trends. It is part of ASEAN, participates in RCEP, working in progress for CPTPP membership by the end of this decade post LDC graduation, enjoys growing connectivity with China, maintains strong ties with Japan and Korea, and continues to engage with Western markets. In an era where many nations are being pressured to choose sides, Cambodia’s greatest advantage may be its ability to work with everyone.
Rather than becoming dependent on any single partner, the country can position itself as a bridge connecting multiple economic ecosystems. The winners of the next decade may not be those who stand firmly inside one camp, but those capable of building trusted relationships across many camps simultaneously. This same logic applies to trade and investment. As companies diversify supply chains and seek alternatives to concentrated manufacturing hubs, Cambodia does not need to compete head-on with larger industrial economies. It simply needs to become an attractive, reliable and flexible complement to them. The future may not belong to countries that produce everything.
It may belong to countries that fit seamlessly into regional and global production networks.
The digital economy presents an even bigger opportunity. Historically, developing countries often spent decades trying to catch up with earlier industrial revolutions. Artificial intelligence, digital services, fintech and remote work are changing that equation. Countries that lacked legacy infrastructure may now find themselves able to move faster than those burdened by outdated systems.
In that sense, Cambodia’s challenge is no longer how to catch up with the past. It is how to position itself for the future.
Equally important is the concept of resilience. The next decade is unlikely to be characterised by stability. Supply chains will shift, technologies will evolve rapidly and geopolitical competition will continue to create uncertainty. Nations that thrive will not necessarily be those experiencing the fastest growth. They will be those capable of absorbing shocks while remaining open to opportunity. For Cambodia, resilience means strengthening energy security, food security, digital infrastructure, education and institutional capacity. These may not be the most glamorous investments, but they are the foundations upon which future competitiveness will rest.
There is also a less obvious opportunity emerging. As the world becomes more divided, the value of trusted neutral spaces increases. Countries that can host dialogue, facilitate cooperation and provide platforms for engagement often gain influence beyond what their size would suggest. Cambodia could gradually develop as a regional connector, bringing together governments, businesses, investors, researchers and innovators from different parts of the world.
Perhaps the most important shift, however, is one of mindset. Small countries often think of themselves in terms of limitations. Limited territory. Limited population. Limited resources. But in the emerging age of networks, influence is no longer measured solely by geography or military strength. The most successful countries of the coming decades may function less like traditional nation-states and more like platforms. They connect people, ideas, capital, technology and opportunity. Their value comes not from what they control, but from what they enable.
Viewed through that lens, Cambodia’s future may be far more promising than many assume. The country does not aim to become the largest economy in Southeast Asia. It cannot compete with China, India or the United States. It would by no means become a geopolitical heavyweight. It simply needs to become one of the most connected, adaptable and trusted countries in the region. In a fragmented world where large powers are increasingly constrained by their rivalries, there may be unexpected advantages in being smaller, more agile and more flexible.
The coming era may prove that survival is no longer about being the biggest fish in the pond. It is about learning how to swim faster than everyone else.
David Van is a Cambodian business strategist and public policy adviser with over 45 years of multinational corporate, trade, and investment experience across Southeast Asia. A pioneer in public–private partnerships and blended finance, he has helped shape Cambodia’s trade, transport, skills, and industrial development policies while advising governments, multilateral agencies and global corporations.
